Guide to Trade Crude Oil (WTI and Brent) — What Moves Oil Prices?

Crude oil is one of the world’s most actively traded commodities, and its price movements affect virtually every sector of the global economy. For traders, oil offers significant volatility and well-defined fundamental drivers that make it possible to develop an analytical framework for price direction.

Supply factors

OPEC+ production decisions are the primary supply driver. When OPEC+ announces production cuts, oil prices typically rally; when they announce production increases, prices fall. U.S. shale production (tracked via the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory report) also significantly affects global supply.

Demand factors

Global economic growth drives oil demand. Strong GDP data from China (the world’s largest oil importer), the U.S., and Europe increases demand expectations and supports prices. Economic slowdown or recession fears reduce demand expectations and pressure prices lower.

WTI vs. Brent

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is the U.S. benchmark; Brent is the global benchmark. Brent typically trades at a slight premium to WTI. Both are available as CFDs on the AP platform. Most global oil contracts and pricing references use Brent as the benchmark.

Geopolitical risk premium

Conflict or instability in major oil-producing regions (Middle East, Russia, Nigeria) adds a “risk premium” to oil prices reflecting potential supply disruption.

Key Takeaway: Oil prices are driven by the balance of global supply and demand, OPEC+ policy decisions, and geopolitical risk. Monitor the weekly EIA inventory report, OPEC+ meeting outcomes, and global PMI data to build an informed view on oil direction.